This paper explores the link between default risk and fiscal procyclicality. We show that countries with higher sovereign risk have a more procyclical fiscal expenditure policy, which is driven mostly by transfers. We build a small open economy model with income inequality, social transfers, and...

Under what conditions do countries comply with their fiscal policy rules? We tackle this question in the context of emerging countries, with a specific focus on Latin America and the Caribbean, a region where fiscal rules have become increasingly common in recent decades. Based on an original...

Emerging market economies typically exhibit a procyclical fiscal policy: public expenditures rise (fall) in economic expansions (recessions), whereas tax rates rise (fall) in bad (good) times. Additionally, the business cycle of these economies is characterized by countercyclical default risk....

Emerging market financial crises during the late 1990s were marked by sudden withdrawals of funds by foreign creditors, resulting in production declines. The IMF favored positive signals to potential foreign creditors and initially recommended disciplined fiscal policy during the height of...

Total public debt in most emerging markets grew before and after the pandemic with a sizable share in foreign currency. Along this trend, interest payments increased even in the presence of active fiscal rules in some countries. How should debt management of public debt be set under a fiscal...

We quantify the impact of barriers to international investment, using a novel multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous investors and imperfect capital mobility. Our model yields a gravity equation for bilateral foreign asset positions. We estimate this gravity equation...

Market integration and currency risk are two main factors that distinguish international investment and financing decisions. Hence, we investigate the impact of currency factor on the dynamics of market integration. We compare integration indices estimated from conditional international asset...

We study the short-run macroeconomic effects of trade policies that are equivalent in a friction-less economy, namely a uniform increase in import tariffs and export subsidies (IX), an increase in value-added taxes accompanied by a payroll tax reduction (VP), and a border adjustment of corporate...

In light of rapidly increasing foreign equity liability positions of emerging market economies, we test for a necessary condition of international risk sharing, namely for systematic patterns between idiosyncratic output fluctuations and financial market developments. Panel analysis of 22...