We consider forecasting a single time series using high-dimensional predictors in the presence of a possible nonlinear forecast function. The sufficient forecasting (Fan et al., 2016) used sliced inverse regression to estimate lower-dimensional sufficient indices for non-parametric forecasting...

We exploit exogenous variation in turnovers of China's municipal political leaders to study how political incentives affect firms' strategic tax avoidance behavior. We document robust cycles in corporate tax compliance corresponding with the timing of political turnovers. Specifically, we find...