from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors …

approach we are able to asses uncertainty intuitively by constructing error bands for the forecasts. We observe that in … particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that hitherto existing forecasting methods … development of adjacent age groups is assured allowing for consistent forecasts. We develop an appropriate Markov Chain Monte …

Bayesian approach we are able to assess uncertainty intuitively by constructing error bands for the forecasts. We observe that … in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that existing forecasting methods … similar development of adjacent age groups is assured, allowing for consistent forecasts. We develop an appropriate Markov …