Short-term forecasting is usually made in recent literature by modeling the spot price of commodities such as coffee and cattle with ARIMA models and in some articles including volatility models. Unlike such articles, herein the models of the spot price of coffee and cattle are estimated...

The paper develops a novel approach to account for serially dependent extreme price changes under the assumption that the tail distribution follows the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Our approach can 1) detect serial dependence of extreme price changes, and 2) can be applied when...