We directly compare retail investor execution costs with exchange execution costs. We find off-exchange retail trades execute at lower effective spreads than comparable exchange trades, primarily due to the uninformed nature of retail trades. These results hold when payment for order flow (PFOF)...

I propose and test a simple model of the equity premium implied by the prices of options on the stock market. The model's main assumption is the absence of arbitrage in stock and option markets. Its forecasts of the equity premium are more accurate than those in prior work, especially when...

People often make important decisions based on information elicited from experts with uncertain preferences. We provide a theoretical rationale for the use of information markets in decision making tasks. Specifically, we show that markets for claims on decision-relevant variables can be...

Information markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcomeof an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. The prices in these markets provide useful information about a particular issue, such as a president's reelection probability. The purpose of this...

We structurally estimate a model in which agents' information processing biases can cause predictability in firms' asset returns and investment inefficiencies. We generalize the neoclassical investment model by allowing for two biases -- overconfidence and over-extrapolation of trends -- that...

We identify model-free mispricing factors and relate them to global stock prices and investor beliefs. The factors measure variation in the relative mispricing of closed-end funds and their underlying assets. We design three factors to reflect the beliefs and capital flows of important...