Showing 1 - 10 of 30,329
This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the … forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM), estimated both by maximum …-dimensional summaries, e.g. the log determinant statistic, as measures of overall forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584035
In this paper we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an open economy, and estimate it on Euro area data using Bayesian estimation techniques. The model incorporates several open economy features, as well as a number of nominal and real frictions that have proven to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011583872
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
We propose a method to incorporate information from Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models into Dynamic Factor Analysis. The method combines a procedure previously applied for Bayesian Vector Autoregressions and a Gibbs Sampling approach for Dynamic Factor Models. The factors in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316078
In this paper we propose a strategy for forecasting the term structure of interest rates which may produce significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284219
; DSGE Model ; Bayesian Analysis ; Forecasting ; Transmission of Shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003923369
Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241110
There are many indications that formal methods are not used to their full potential by central banks today. In this paper we demonstrate how BVAR and DSGE models can be used to shed light on questions that policy makers deal with in practice using data from Sweden. We compare the forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011585648
Optimal simple rules for the monetary policy of the first stochastically dominant crypto-currency are derived in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, in order to provide optimal responses to changes in inflation, output, and other sources of uncertainty.The optimal monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254355
In this paper we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an open economy, and estimate it on Euro area data using Bayesian estimation techniques. The model incorporates several open economy features, as well as a number of nominal and real frictions that have proven to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014055173