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We show that log-dividends (d) and log-prices (p) are cointegrated, but, instead of de facto assuming the stationarity … of the classical log dividend–price ratio, we allow the data to reveal the cointegration vector between d and p. We … define the modified dividend–price ratio (mdp), as the long run trend deviation between d and p. Using S&P 500 data for the …
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\amp;P 100 index via Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation. We find that the stochastic processes governing individual stocks are …
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Hidden Markov model (HMM) is a powerful machine-learning method for data regime detection, especially time series data. In this paper, we establish a multi-step procedure for using HMM to select stocks from the global stock market. First, the five important factors of a stock are identified and...
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The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...
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