We study firms' incentives to acquire costly information in booms and recessions to understand the role of endogenous information in explaining asymmetric business cycles. When the economy has been in a boom in the previous period, and firms enter the current period with an optimistic belief,...

We provide evidence on the dynamics, drivers, and consequences of attention to the macroeconomy using tailored panel surveys of German firms and households. Draw-ing on novel measures of attention based on open-ended questions collected before and during a historic shock to inflation, we...

Climate change is projected to severely damage the global economy. Adaptation in response to a changing climate will affect how much damage ultimately occurs. This paper introduces a method for estimating forward-looking adaptation based on differences in responses to forecasts and realizations...

The economics of global climate mitigation is discussed when there is imperfect knowledge of future climatic changes, of policy effectiveness and of the policy responses by different countries. Uncertainty is accounted for by using heuristics derived from classical decision rules. These...

We consider an experimental setting where agents receive one stylized piece of information at a time about the value of a lottery. We find that Knightian uncertainty about the prior distribution of true lottery values does not hamper decision making by agents and markets. On a mean squared error...

Recent empirical studies suggest that, during times of unexpected innovation, agents heterogeneously update their beliefs about an asset fundamental value, and they are uncertain about other agents' beliefs on it. In this paper I show that, when there is uncertainty about the market sentiment,...

This paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for stabilizing expectations. Because of learning dynamics, uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy is shown to restrict, relative to a rational expectations analysis, the set of policies consistent with...