This paper uses sectoral data to study survey-based diffusion indices designed to capture changes in the business cycle in real time. The empirical framework recognizes that when answering survey questions regarding their firm's output, respondents potentially rely on infrequently updated...

Qualitative surveys enjoy huge popularity among business cycle analysts and research institutes since they provide fast information on the stance of the economy. However, in order to derive quantitative statements researchers have to rely on assumptions about the relation between quantitative...

Much analysis in macroeconomics empirically addresses economy-wide incentives behind consumer/investment choices by using insights from the way a single representative household would behave. Heterogeneity at the micro level can jeopardize attempts to back up the representative consumer...

Much analysis in macroeconomics empirically addresses economy-wide incentives behind consumer/investment choices by using insights from the way a single representative household would behave. Heterogeneity at the micro level can jeopardize attempts to back up the representative consumer...

Die Kumulation von Haushaltsstichproben steht auf der Agenda einer europäischen Neuordnung von Haushaltsbefragungen. Im Rahmen des Projektes Amtliche Statistik und sozioökonomische Fragestellungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes und in Abstimmung mit den EUROSTAT-Erfordernissen für neue...

Social surveys are often used to estimate unemployment duration distributions. Survey nonresponse may then cause a bias. We study this using a unique dataset that combines survey information of individual workers with administrative records of the same workers. The latter provide information on...

The present paper offers a careful description of empirical identification of possible multiple changes in regime. We apply recently developed tools designed to select between regime-switching models among a broad class of linear and nonlinear regression models and provide a discussion of the...

When a survey response mechanism depends on the variable of interest measured within the same survey and observed for only part of the sample, the situation is one of nonignorable nonresponse. Ignoring the nonresponse is likely to generate significant bias in the estimates. To solve this, one...

The paper analyzes effects of randomized response with respect to some binary dependent variable on the estimation of the probit model. This approach is used in interviews when asking sensitive questions. Alternatively randomization can be considered as a means of statistical disclosure control...

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper estimates the degree of uncertainty and asymmetry in the probability forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our...