This paper uses uses a novel type of panel vector autoregression to establish that the well-known association between linkages and business cycle comovement has both intratemporal and intertemporal dimensions. When two countries are more closely linked (i.e., they trade more or hold more...

The assumption of rational expectations is potentially a serious source of misspecification in DSGE models. Many recent theories of expectations formation have relaxed rational expectations and improved the predictive properties of benchmark macroeconomic models. Problematically, the space of...

Standard international macroeconomic models overpredict capital flows into countries with relatively lower capital stocks and faster-growing TFP. Asymmetric invest- ment risk has been shown in similar models to be a significant driver of capital flows between otherwise symmetric countries. But...

We show that the interaction between political turnover and corruption significantly affects the inter-temporal optimization problems of governments by inducing a “corruption-temptation tax” in the Euler condition. Governments treat corruption in the same way that rational consumers treat a...

We provide a simple rational bubble model demonstrating that a concentration of income is necessary and sufficient for the existence of equilibria with risky speculative bubbles. Income concentration among top earners leads to excess savings and depressed interest rates, which facilitate the...

We analyze the relationships between bubbles, capital flows, and economic activities in a rational bubble model with two large open economies. We establish a reinforcing relationship between global imbalances and bubbles. Capital flows from South to North facilitate the emergence and the size of...