We propose a theory that jointly accounts for an asset illiquidity and for the asset price potential over-reliance on public information. We argue that, when trading frequencies differ across traders, asset prices reflect investors' Higher Order Expectations (HOEs) about the two factors that...

We develop and test explanations for sources of intertemporal variation in the information content of aggregate earnings and how that variation explains variation in the relation between aggregate earnings growth and market returns over time. We find that the correlation between aggregate...

We survey the textual sentiment literature, comparing and contrasting the various information sources, content analysis methods, and empirical models that have been used to date. We summarize the important and influential findings about how textual sentiment impacts on individual, firm-level and...

In this paper it is shown that the combination of mental accounting and loss aversion can fundamentally changes people's way of evaluating risky alternatives. The observation is applied in a market setting: Parimutuel betting markets. In parimutuel betting markets it has been found that for...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

This paper studies the signalling effect of the consumption-wealth ratio (cay) on German stock returns via vector error correction models (VECMs). The effect of cay on U.S. stock returns has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson with a two-stage method. In this paper, performances of...

One of the main results of the literature on the effects of uncertainty on trade states that uncertainty should not matter in the presence of well developed forward markets. Empirical studies, however, do not support this result. We derive the demand for forward cover in a small open economy...

Pragmatic-world nominal riskless rates are non-negative. However, conventional arbitrage theory has yet to develop a theoretical justification of this phenomenon. – We define the null-alternative cash as an investor holding onto cash and refraining from investment and consumption ("doing...

Ende der 90er Jahre schien eine intensive Auswahl der Investments kaum notwendig, da fast jede Aktienanlage deutliche Kursgewinne versprach. Nach dem jähen Absturz an den Börsen haben die Anleger einen beträchtlichen Teil ihres Aktienvermögens verloren. Damit rücken wieder verstärkt...

This paper analyses the effects of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) market on real investment decisions in emerging industries. We first propose a model of IPO timing based on divergence of opinion among investors and short-sale constraints. Using a real option approach, we show that firms are...