This paper presents a new Bayesian methodology for predicting a turning point in an economic system. The methodology utilizes information-theoretic measurements for assessing likelihood functions for a turning point. This methodology shows that the total information of a likelihood function...

We present the generalized hybrid averaging (GHA) operator. It is a new aggregation operator that generalizes the hybrid averaging (HA) operator by using the generalized mean. Thus, we are able to generalize a wide range of mean operators such as the HA, the hybrid geometric averaging (HGA), the...

This paper presents a methodology for producing a probability forecast of a turning point in U.S. economy using Composite Leading Indicators. This methodology is based on classical statistical decision theory and uses information-theoretic measurement to produce a probability. The methodology is...

This research investigates the role of balance and consistency in inter-consumer communication, i.e. word-of-mouth (WOM), through an analysis of consumers' cognitive networks or quot;signed digraphsquot; representing their WOM experiences. Following a preliminary study employing in-depth...

The Bass (1969) diffusion theory often guides the construction of forecasting models for new product diffusion. To match the model with data, one needs to put forward a statistical model. This paper compares four empirical versions of the model, where two of these explicitly incorporate...

Coordinating contracts have been extensively researched in supply chain management. In this retrospect, we systematically review the profit allocation, decision sequence, and compliance aspects of these contracts. In addition to the existing concepts in the literature, we propose the notion of...

The authors put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in immediate and dynamic effects of promotional prices and regular prices on sales. The model consists of a vector autoregression rewritten in error-correction format which allows to disentangle the immediate effects from...

To understand the relevance of marketing efforts, it has become standard practice to estimatethe long-run and short-run effects of the marketing-mix, using, say, weekly scanner data. Acommon vehicle for this purpose is an econometric time series model. Issues that areaddressed in the literature...

Previous conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about the...

We propose a new empirical representation of the Bass diffusion model, in order to estimate thethree key parameters, concerning innovation, imitation and maturity. The representation isbased on the notion that the observed data may temporarily deviate from the mean pathdetermined by the...