In this paper we highlight a data augmentation approach to inference in the Bayesian logistic regression model. We demonstrate that the resulting conditional likelihood of the regression coefficients is multivariate normal, equivalent to a standard Bayesian linear regression, which allows for...

Most macroeconomic indicators failed to capture the sharp economic fluctuations during the Corona crisis in a timely manner. Instead, alternative high-frequency data have been used, aiming to monitor the economic situation. However, these data are often only loosely related to the business cycle...

The global foreign exchange (FX) market represents a critical and sizeable component of our financial system. It is a market where firms and investors engage in both speculative trading and hedging. Over the years, there has been a growing interest in FX modeling and prediction. Recently,...

Due to the complexity of employment protection legislation (EPL) in Germany, there is notable uncertainty about the outcomes of dismissal conflicts. In this study we focus on severance pay and inquire whether its incidence and level varies in a systematic manner with the legal rules as defined...