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, and time periods, separate metaregressions are estimated; one using estimates with the unemployment rate as the dependent … variable, and the other with output as the dependent variable. Our findings indicate that the specification of the underlying … unemployment and economic growth, researchers should bear in mind that there are a number of methodological choices that have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013164466
-related variables accounts for changes (rises) in the Okun's parameter in the US in recent decades. Accordingly, the unemployment gap is … increasingly associated with a smaller output gap. Whilst the Great Recession accelerated that rise, the bulk of the change …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012135950
with a SVAR model by inspecting how unemployment responds to the state of the economy. We show that deviations from Okun …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332832
In this work the precision and stability of the forecasts of Chile's unemployment rates are analyzed. Said models were … the signs of persistence that the unemployment indicator shows in its behavior; nevertheless, starting from the estimation … obtained, which empirically upholds the proposal of addressing the unemployment rate as a non stationary series. The evaluation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103283
state-level initial unemployment insurance claims, changes in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842419
disaggregate unemployment and in the cross-sectional differences across individuals of the duration of unemployment spells. The …-space model of Ahn and Hamilton (2016). I found that the contribution of each factor to the dynamics of disaggregate unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210435
disaggregate unemployment and in the cross-sectional differences across individuals of the duration of unemployment spells. The …-space model of Ahn and Hamilton (2016). I found that the contribution of each factor to the dynamics of disaggregate unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578275
In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We … propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises … information to predict domestic unemployment rates, at least for these last seven countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845239
unemployment rate are estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Markov switching model is identified by constraining the … difference of the unemployment rate. Out of sample forecasts are obtained from Bayesian predictive densities. Although both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014050320
unemployment rate in Australia. Okun's law also implies a rate of output growth consistent with stable unemployment, called the … growth of potential output. Our estimates of potential output growth are imprecise and fluctuate over time. A recent estimate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014035504