Two theoretical modeis are developed. One describes the behavior of monetary policy before elections, in case of policy instruments being controlled by the government. The other one discusses the effects of a change in the ruling party, if parties differ in the weight they attribute to Inflation...

A theoretical model is developed to describe the behavior of dependent and independent central banks. In an empirical test, the reaction functions of six central banks of industrial countries with different degrees of independence are estimated using an error correction framework. In shock...

Two theoretical modeis are developed. Both describe the connection between public debt and inflation. In the first one, monetary policy inflates the economy to rcduce the bürden of existing debt. In the second one, the causality runs directly from the level of public debt to inflation via a...

This paper proposes an inflation forecasting model for Togo through a simple autoregressive (AR) model. Using data on inflation measured by the annual percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI), ranging from 1967 to 2019, we find that a simple AR(1)model can help forecasting inflation...

This paper explains why the overall stance of monetary policy is effected by both interest rates and the exchange rate, and hence why a Monetary Conditions Indicator can provide useful information about the stance of policy. Three output gap equations estimated in this paper reveal that the real...

This research outlines the Phillips Curve history, examines recent developments in the unemployment – inflation research (especially since the Great Recession and its impact on price and wage inflation dynamics) and takes a fresh look at explaining median wage growth movements with a...

This report is one of the first studies discussing monetary base analysis and control model, a concept even today is alive and more developed by, for example, by IMF to use its analysis. The study presents monetary base approach to control of money flows and the links between monetary base,...

Inflation persistence or ‘inertia’ has important consequences for monetary policy. Inflation which does not get eliminated today tends to persist entailing higher costs in the future. In turn, a monetary regime can exert significant influence on inflation persistence by its credibility and...

This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market...

In a simple New Keynesian model, we derive a closed form solution for the inflation-gap persistence parameter as a function of the policy weights in the central bank's Taylor rule. By estimating the time-varying weights that the FED attaches to inflation and the output gap, we show that the...