In this paper, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...

The integration of fuzzy logic systems and neural networks in data driven nonlinear modeling applications has generally been limited to functions based upon the multiplicative fuzzy implication rule for theoretical and computational reasons. We derive a universal approximation result for the...

This paper investigates the effects of ordinal regressors in linear regression models. Each ordered categorical variable is interpreted as a rough measurement of an underlying continuous variable as it is often done in microeconometrics for the dependent variable. It is shown that using ordinal...

This paper analyzes the link between growth and public policy when the latter depends on economically important fundamentals. When policy is endogenous the measured effects of policy on growth will generally be biased. Using a widely quoted theoretical model, the signs of the biases are derived....

Actual portfolios contain fewer stocks than are implied by standard financial analysis that balances the costs of diversification against the benefits in terms of the standard deviation of the returns. Suppose a safety first investor cares about downside risk and recognizes the heavytail feature...

In this paper, we develop a modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimator for the multiple linear regression model with underlying student t distribution. We obtain the closed form of the estimators, derive the asymptotic properties, and demonstrate that the MML estimator is more appropriate for...

The paper proposes two estimation approaches for duration models that are subject to right censored observations and selection effects. Main focus is on accelerated duration models and the estimators that are of the limited information type, i.e. they are not based on a fully specified selection...

In this paper it is shown that it matters a lot for empirical research whether policy is taken to be exogenously set or to be endogenous. In the model investment depends on policy which depends on economically important fundamentals and is, thus, endogenous. Conditioning on factor accumu- lation...

In dieser Arbeit wird ein Überblick über einige Kernaussagen der ''Neuen Wachstumstheorie'' über den Zusammenhang von Wissen und wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung gegeben. Ausgehend von der ''neoklassischen'' Wachstumstheorie wird die Bedeutung von Wissen in Prototypen endogenen Wachstums der...

This paper focuses on the observed empirical relationship between fiscal rules and budget deficits, and examines whether this correlation is driven by an omitted variable, namely voter preferences. We make use of two different estimation methods to capture voter preferences in a panel of Swiss...