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) specifications and survey forecasts by optimally exploiting their properties. To do that, it compares the forecasting performance of …-term forecast horizons using both univariate and multivariate forecasting metrics. Results show that the Survey of Professional … judgement incorporated in survey forecasts can considerably increase model forecasts accuracy, however, the way and the extent …
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The Condorcet Jury Theorem is derived from the implicit assumption that jury members only commit one type of error. If the probability of this error is smaller than 0.5, then group decisions are better than those of individual members. In binary decision situations, however, two types of error...
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