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Since 2009, stock markets have resided in a long bull market regime. Passive investment strategies have succeeded during this low-volatility growth period. From 2018 on, however, there was a transition into a more volatile market environment interspersed by corrections increasing in amplitude...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012419688
. Forecasting from such a model assuming "no structural break" and "correct model" is tantamount to ignoring important aspects of …) a random walk model. Optimal IC approach, though computational intensive, outperforms in forecasting next period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012040055
forecasting accuracy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459503
forecasting daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed …-frequency models, introducing a Bayesian approach to reverse unrestricted MIDAS models (RU-MIDAS). We study the forecasting accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987142
We use newly-available Indian panel data to estimate how the returns to planting-stage investments vary by rainfall realizations. We show that the forecasts significantly affect farmer investment decisions and that these responses account for a substantial fraction of the inter-annual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010369064
We use newly-available Indian panel data to estimate how the returns to planting-stage investments vary by rainfall realizations. We show that the forecasts significantly affect farmer investment decisions and that these responses account for a substantial fraction of the inter-annual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009782148
This chapter presents, further clarifies, and extends the foundations of economic resilience, with an eye to concerns of measurement. We examine the potential usefulness of theoretical concepts and empirical analyses in related fields such as ecology, management, regional science, and planning....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243883
Evidence-based policy re global warming is best relying on a relevant sample of data. Showing close correlation between CO2 and temperature over hundreds of thousands of years is irrelevant today. We choose a sample of annual data from 1959 to-date to provide some statistically robust stylized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013307256
in forecasting from using bivariate models remained small otherwise. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292735
forecasting the term structure of interest rates. As expected, I find that using more flexible models leads to a better in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325534