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This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the … pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783143
We incorporate adaptive learning-based inflation expectations in an Unobserved Components model in order to study the … link between inflation and the output gap. The forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve serves as the backbone for … modeling inflation dynamics. We find that learning based inflation forecasts not only shadow survey expectations in the pre …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234838
We consider a Keynes-Goodwin model of effective demand and the distributive cycle where workers purchase goods and houses with marginal propensity significantly larger than one. They therefore need credit, supplied from asset holders, and have to pay interest on their outstanding debt. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003861624
during and following the recent Great Recession, and that models in which inflation depends on economic slack cannot explain … the recent muted behavior of inflation, given the sharp drop in output that occurred in 2008-09. In this paper, we use a … protracted decline in inflation. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of both economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009744674
during and following the recent Great Recession, and that models in which inflation depends on economic slack cannot explain … the recent muted behavior of inflation, given the sharp drop in output that occurred in 2008-09. In this paper, we use a … protracted decline in inflation. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of both economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081875
chartalist, respectively), the rate of wage inflation depends on either unemployment or the wage-setting policies of the … inflation affects aggregate demand through its impact on the value of assets and debts. Bank rates depend on an endogenous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021745
Assessing potential output and the output gap is essential for policy-making and fiscal surveillance. The European Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models. This paper presents the R package RGAP which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256541
The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial frictions are a relevant source of macroeconomic fluctuation. We derive a measure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049145
We estimate the effects of monetary policy on price-setting behavior in administrative micro data underlying the German producer price index. We find a strong degree of monetary non-neutrality. After expansionary monetary policy, the mass of additional price adjustments is economically small and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857905
Empirical evidence demonstrates that credit standards, including lending margins and collateral requirements, move in a countercyclical direction. In this study, we construct a small open economy model with financial frictions to generate the countercyclical movement in credit standards. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012800343