of inflation in the future. A recent article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that simple models of … inflation tend to forecast inflation better than large statistical models. This paper re-visits the price gap model where the … forecast horizons, and thus has the most usefulness for inflation forecasting. Robustness checks are then run – the models are …

of inflation in the future. A recent article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that simple models of … inflation tend to forecast inflation better than large statistical models. This paper re-visits the price gap model where the … forecast horizons, and thus has the most usefulness for inflation forecasting. Robustness checks are then run – the models are …

of inflation in the future. A recent article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that simple models of … inflation tend to forecast inflation better than large statistical models. This paper re-visits the price gap model where the … forecast horizons, and thus has the most usefulness for inflation forecasting. Robustness checks are then run – the models are …

empirical finding when estimated with different expectation formation processes. When inflation becomes de-anchored and … expectations drift, we can observe high inflation even with a mildly positive output gap in response to cost-push shocks. The … normal times to predict the cost of reining in inflation. Our optimal policy exercises prescribe early monetary policy …

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a … empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application …, we consider about thirty monetary and non-monetary indicators for inflation. Using this data, BMA provides inclusion …

period 2016q1-2020q1. My findings suggest that inflation forecasts produced by the BVAR model are more accurate than those of … outperform those of the QPM for the whole forecast horizon. For inflation they also outperform the official NBU forecasts over …

separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a … positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job … and inflation far above the central bank target. …