The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive...

Comparative-statics results for financial options are often assumed to hold for real options. But the effects of higher volatility need not be increased value and postponed investment. This depends on signs of correlations and what parameters are held constant. For real options, the...

This paper develops a methodology to test whether recent developments on world oil markets are in line with the hypothesis of efficient markets. We treat the joint hypothesis problem as stated by Fama (1970), Fama (1991), that market efficiency can only be assessed in conjunction with a price...

Whilst the benefits of forward contracting for goods and services have been extensively researched in terms of mitigating market power effects in spot markets, we analyse how the risk in spot price formation induces a counteracting premium in the contract prices. We consider and test a...

I provide, in this paper, evidence on the contribution of crude oil excess volatility to the volatility index. Crude oil leads the volatility index by 16 basis points (BP) 6 months ahead of time. This leadership is reversal and covers the period from January 21, 2000 to the end of 2011. The...

The relationships between crude and product prices are crucial throughout oil markets and especially so within the refining industry, where they define the refinery margin between cost of inputs (crudes) and value of outputs (products). The oil market is global but regional factors are also...

We examine investments in power generation projects under policy uncertainty, when the investor has the choice between two alternative technologies, a gas-fired plant and a wind plant. Increased risk of subsidy withdrawal reduces the payoff from and postpones investments in the wind technology....

This paper presents implied volatility smiles and skews for plain vanilla electricity options based on a new bid stack model developed in a previous paper. This underlying bid stack model for the electricity market is extended to the case of an arbitrary number N of technology classes embedded...

This paper proposes an extended version of the analytical structural model for the electricity market developed in a previous paper. The presented electricity price process is driven by stochastic load and random plant availability as well as stochastic marginal generation cost factors embedded...

In this paper we introduce a new two-factor commodity term structure model for which inventories serve as a second state variable. We derive a closed-form formula for futures prices and empirically analyze the model's properties. Besides being economically appealing, our model also outperforms...