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This paper introduces a new theoretic entity, a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. Abstractions used in the evaluation stage of decision making typically involve nominalist heuristics that are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes...
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the Black Scholes formulae to forward exchange rates and contributed to sequel financial crises including that of 2007 …
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Players from two populations, predictors and predictees, are randomly matched in a game--theoretic version of Newcomb's Problem. Predictors are able to predict the predictees' choices by observing their type. There are two types of predictees, those who take their predictability into account by...
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capability of generating profits by transforming these yield curve predictions into technical trading strategies. The Sharpe … terms of the Sharpe ratio, especially in the 1-year-ahead predictions. This finding is in line with Diebold and Li (J Econom …
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example) based on the stock price predictions. The procedure starts by using four criteria, including the Akaike information … predictions against the historical average model. Finally, both theHMMand the historical average model are used to trade the S …
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