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Dissecting models' forecasting performance
Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2015
In this paper we suggest an approach to comparison of models' forecasting performance in unstable environments. Our … tracking how the relative forecasting performance of competing models evolves over time. We illustrate the suggested approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382631
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Dissecting models' forecasting performance
Siliverstovs, Boriss - In: Economic modelling 67 (2017), pp. 294-299
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813831
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Forecasting value-at-risk under temporal and portfolio aggregation
Kole, Erik; Markwat, Thijs; Opschoor, Anne; Dijk, Dick van - 2015
We examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a horizon of ten trading days for a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments. The VaR forecasts are constructed based on daily, weekly or biweekly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431503
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Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates
Buncic, Daniel - 2009 - This Version : July 23, 2009
The forecast performance of the empirical ESTAR model of Taylor, Peel and Sarno (2001) is examined for 4 bilateral real exchange rate series over an out-of-sample eval-uation period of nearly 12 years. Point as well as density forecasts are constructed, considering forecast horizons of 1 to 22...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523710
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Modelling and forecasting oil prices: The role of asymmetric cycles
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus; Jumah, Adusei; Karbuz, Sohbet - 2007
We propose a new time series model aimed at forecasting crude oil prices. The proposed specification is an unobserved …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293428
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Using wavelets for time series forecasting: Does it pay off?
Schlüter, Stephan; Deuschle, Carola - 2010
incorporating the wavelet transform in existing forecasting methods can improve their quality. The article aims to verify this by … characteristics. We find that wavelets do improve the forecasting quality. Depending on the data's characteristics and on the … forecasting horizon we either favour a denoising step plus an ARIMA forecast or an multiscale wavelet decomposition plus an ARIMA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010300727
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An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models
van den Hauwe, Sjoerd; Paap, Richard; van Dijk, Dick J.C. - 2011
We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325904
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Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data
Diron, Marie - 2006
Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668
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Google searches as a means of improving the nowcasts of key macroeconomic variables
Kholodilin, Konstantin Arkadievich; Podstawski, Maximilian - 2009
subject to revisions. This makes them an excellent source of information for the macroeconomic forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274377
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Priors from DSGE models for dynamic factor analysis
Bäurle, Gregor - 2008
We propose a method to incorporate information from Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models into Dynamic Factor Analysis. The method combines a procedure previously applied for Bayesian Vector Autoregressions and a Gibbs Sampling approach for Dynamic Factor Models. The factors in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316078