We propose filtering historical simulation by GARCH processes to model the future distribution of assets and swap values. Options' price changes are computed by full re-evaluation on the changing prices of underlying assets. Our methodology takes implicitly into account assets' correlations...

This paper uses fractional cointegration analysis to examine whether long-run relations exist between securitized real estate returns and three sets of variables frequently used in the literature as the factors driving securitized real estate returns. That is, we examine whether such...

This paper provides an early warning indicator for bubbles in financial markets. The indicator is based on traditional unit root tests, more precisely on the augmented Dickey-Fuller test and may be used in a repeated manner with rolling samples. The performance of the indicator is tested...

Workers covered by defined benefit pension plans receive lower benefits at retirement if they leave their current job before reaching retirement age. This study estimates the magnitude of this pension loss for workers in the May 1983 supplement of the Current Population Survey, using pension...

This paper puts forth a unified theory of growth that captures a number of relevant features of countries' transitions from stagnant, predominantly rural economies to vibrant, industrialized economies that have been overlooked by the literature. In our theory, increasing variety of consumer...

This paper examines how the interaction between inflation expectations and nominal and real macroeconomic variables has evolved for the United Kingdom over the post-WWII period until 2007. We model time-variation through a Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive framework with variants...

Cross-region and cross-sector asset allocation decisions are one of the most fundamental issues in international equity portfolio management. Equity returns exhibit higher volatilities and correlations, and lower expected returns, in bear markets compared to bull markets. However, static...