This paper investigates the forecasting accuracy of the trimmed mean inflation rate of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator. Earlier works have examined the forecasting ability of limited-influence estimators (trimmed means and the weighted median) of the Consumer Price Index but...

This paper examines the interaction of core inflation and monetary policy. Interest in core has grown because of inflation targeting. Core inflation is defined in numerous ways giving rise to many potential measures; I define core inflation as the best forecaster of inflation. A cross-country...

We separate changes of the federal funds rate into two components; one reflects the Fed's superior forecasts about the state of the economy and the other component reflects the Fed's reaction to the public's forecast about the state of the economy. Romer and Romer (2000) found that the Fed...