The spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (Economic Journal, 2009, vol. 119, pp. 158-171) is widely used to measure connectedness in economic and financial networks. Abrupt increases in the spillover index are typically thought to result from systemic events, but evidence of the...

The spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (Economic Journal, 2009, vol. 119, pp. 158-171) is widely used to measure connectedness in economics and finance. Abrupt increases in the spillover index are thought to result from major economic and financial events, but formal evidence of...

This chapter demonstrates the usefulness of the GVAR modelling framework as a tool for scenario-based forecasting and counterfactual analysis. Working with the GVAR model developed by Greenwood-Nimmo, Nguyen and Shin (2010, J. Appl. Econometrics), we first show how probabilistic forecasting can...