The aim of the presented study was to assess the quality of VaR forecasts in various states of the economic situation. Two approaches based on the extreme value theory were compared: Block Maxima and the Peaks Over Threshold. Forecasts were made on the daily closing prices of 10 major indices in...

This study contrasts GARCH models with diverse combined forecast techniques for Commodities Value at Risk (VaR) modeling, aiming to enhance accuracy and provide novel insights. Employing daily returns data from 2000 to 2020 for gold, silver, oil, gas, and copper, various combination methods are...