Phillips curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational … separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a … positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job …

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), driven by unit labor costs has been criticized for failing to match inflation … inflation and strengthen the empirical support for the role of expectations-based inflation persistence. They also imply a …

We estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the USA from 1997 to 2019 using expected inflation from financial … instruments. We use a spliced series comprised of the TIPS spread and inflation swaps. Empirical tests find higher coefficients on … backward-looking inflation than forward-looking, except for the 2009 – 2015 period of zero lower bound Fed Funds rate target …

Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime … price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The results are informative for … assessing the likelihood and risks of meeting certain inflation targets on a sustained basis …

In general, central banks are concerned with keeping the inflation rate stable while also sustaining output close to an … efficient level. Under "inflation targeting", forecasts of the evolution of the general price level are an essential input for … policy decisions and these are usually released in quarterly "Inflation Reports". The costs and benefits of transparency in …

Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime … price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The results are informative for … assessing the likelihood and risks of meeting certain inflation targets on a sustained basis …

The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts … (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated … using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational …

This paper investigates the performance of inflation indicators for predicting the probability of inflation falling … the moving target range that future inflation will be below most recently observed inflation. This issue is motivated by … the gradual reduction in the rate of inflation by monetary control. When the inflation target range is zero to the average …

Managing inflation is vital for a stable economy, but forecasting remains challenging. ML methods, like neural networks …, have shown promise in forecasting inflation and other macroeconomic variables. In this paper, I propose DPCNet, a deep … multi-task learning model, to jointly forecast inflation and unemployment. DPCNet incorporates economic structure and memory …

This paper analyses the post-pandemic inflation dynamics in Canada using a behavioral macroeconomic model of the Bank …-pandemic inflation can be explained by these simple heuristics and traced back to the lifting of economic restrictions in mid-2020 …, triggering demand-pull inflation. This result suggests that the cost-push inflation in 2021 and beyond actually originated from a …