This paper analyzes the real-time out-of-sample performance of three kinds of combination schemes. While for each the set of underlying forecasts is slightly modified, all of them are real-time recession probability forecasts generated by a dynamic probit indicator. Among the considered...

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

This paper provides market risk calculation for an equity-based trading portfolio. Instead of relying on the purely stochastic internal model method, which banks currently apply in line with the Basel regulatory requirements, we propose to include also alternative price mechanisms from the...

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

Empirical studies analysing German import demand functions traditionally report implausibly high income and relative low price elasticities. Furthermore, estimation results strongly depend on the observation period. Minor variations in the estimation period typically lead to insignificant price...

This paper examines in how far the DSGE model which is often dubbed the New Keynesian Consensus is compatibel with a Post-Keynesian or traditional Keynesian understanding of the economy. It is argued that while at first sight DSGE models seem to include a lot of traditional Keynesian or even...