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Energy market volatility affects macroeconomic conditions and can unduly affect the economies of energy-producing countries. Large price swings can be detrimental to both producers and consumers. Market volatility can cause infrastructure and capacity investments to be delayed, employment...
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suggest that oil futures prices have marginal predictive power for the price of oil at a 1-month forecast horizon. However …, they generally lose their forecasting power at higher forecast horizons. The results also suggest that exchange rates help … predicting oil prices at higher forecast horizons. The paper also considers forecast averaging and variable selection methods …
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