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(MRS-MNTS-GARCH) to accommodate fat tails, volatility clustering and regime switch. The volatility of each asset … independently follows the regime-switch GARCH model, while the correlation of joint innovation of the GARCH models follows the … contribution is twofold. (i) We propose the Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation …
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We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
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