We present evidence that referenda have a significant, detrimental outcome on investment. Employing an unsupervised machine learning algorithm over the period 2008-2017, we construct three important uncertainty indices underlying reports in the Scottish news media: Scottish independence...

We construct measures of uncertainty and its dispersion exploiting the heterogeneity of a large set of model predictions. The approach is forward-looking, can be computed in real-time, and can be applied at any frequency. We illustrate the methodology with expected shortfall predictions of...

The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining...

Does policy uncertainty affect productivity? Policy uncertainty creates delays as firms await new information about prices, costs and other market conditions before committing resources. Such delays can have real consequences on firms’ productivity and corporate decisions. First, we find that...

XVA models for the calculation of CVA, FVA (see for example (Burgard and Kjaer 2013)), KVA(Green, Kenyon, and Dennis 2014), MVA (Green and Kenyon 2014) and TVA (Kenyon and Green 2014a) have frequently been formulated at the counterparty level. However, it is clear that some elements of the...

This paper presents novel evidence for the prevalence of deviations from rational behavior in human decision making – and for the corresponding causes and consequences. The analysis is based on move-by-move data from chess tournaments and an identification strategy that compares behavior of...

We investigate the data-driven newsvendor problem when one has n observations of p features related to the demand as well as historical demand data. Rather than a two-step process of first estimating a demand distribution then optimizing for the optimal order quantity, we propose solving the...

I propose a novel method, the Wasserstein Index Generation model (WIG), to generate a public sentiment index automatically. To test the model's effectiveness, an application to generate Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index is showcased

There is a fundamental difference between the natural and the social sciences due to reactivity. This difference remains even in the age of Artificially Intelligent Learning Machines and Big Data. Many academic economists take it as a matter of course that economics should become a natural...

Multiple agent-based models (ABM) on social-ecological systems exist in parallel investigating similar research questions. However, the choice of a particular human decision model is often not sufficiently empirically or theoretically substantiated in the model documentation. Furthermore, model...