I propose a novel approach to uncover business cycle reports' priorities and relate them to economic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage quantitative business-cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research institutes since 1970 to estimate the proportions of latent topics in...

Rule-based expert systems must deal with uncertain data,subjective expert opinions, and inaccurate decision rules. Computer scientistsand psychologists have proposed and implemented a number of belief languages widely used in applied systems, and their normative validity is clearly an important...

We use Dynamic Bayesian networks to classify business cycle phases. We compare classifiers generated by learning the Dynamic Bayesian network structure on different sets of admissible network structures. Included are sets of network structures of the Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN) classifiers...