Interest rate forecasting remains vexing because of the lower bound. A few tractable models are available, but they offer limited or restrictive volatility dynamics. In response, we build on the popular dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach to greatly expand the space of term-structure models that are...

An emerging literature relies on an index of limits of arbitrage in fixed-income markets. We analyze the benefits of an index that is model-free, robust and intuitive. This new index strengthens the evidence that limits of arbitrage proxy for risks priced in the cross-section of returns. Trading...

Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates help predict bond returns and that (ii) modern Markovian dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) cannot match the evidence. We develop the family of Conditional Mean DTSMs where the dynamics depend on current yields and their history...

Expected returns vary when investors face time-varying investment opportunities. In theory, structural long-run risk models (Bansal and Yaron, 2004) and no-arbitrage affine models (Duffie, Pan, and Singleton, 2000) emphasize sources of risk that are not observable to the econometrician. We show...

Using granular data about government bonds, we find that dealer networks undergo significant changes after the arrival of new public information. Following the release of macroeconomic data, dealer intermediation increases, the dealers' inventory changes and more bonds circulate through the...