-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We … find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation …

inflation rates of Turkey and propose a new weighting scheme, the time-varying simple weighting method. Our guiding principle … prospective credibility of the inflation-targeting regime of the central bank of the Republic of Turkey …

predictor of core inflation than other measures …

In this paper, I apply univariate and vector autoregressive (VAR) models to forecast inflation in Vietnam. To … properties of inflation in Vietnam. Then, I compute the pseudo out-of-sample root mean square error (RMSE) as a measure of … forecasting models from among the different candidates. I find that VAR_m2 is the best monthly model to forecast inflation in …

Forecasting inflation is an important and challenging task. In this paper we assume that the core inflation components … evolve as a multivariate local level process. This model, which is theoretically attractive for modelling inflation dynamics … estimates, as we show in a Monte Carlo exercise. In an application to euro-area inflation we find that our forecasts compare …

predict inflation, interest rates, unemployment, income, stock prices, and the housing market. The results cast doubt on the … allocation, and economic forecasting. The third paper, An Inflation Expectations Horserace, examines the use of high …-frequency versus low-frequency inflation expectations data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations …

applied to quarterly and monthly US inflation in an empirical study. We find that the persistence of quarterly inflation has … and density forecasts for monthly US inflation. …

inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …

This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with …. While average output and inflation result the same as under rational expectations, higher moments differ substantially …: output and inflation show persistence, inflation responds sluggishly to nominal disturbances, and the dynamic correlations of …