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In recent years, a number of papers have established a new empirical regularity. Stocks of distressed firms vastly underperform those of financially healthy firms. It is not necessary to attribute the negative excess returns of distressed firms to inefficient or irrational markets. We show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295785
Money markets have two functions, the allocation of liquidity and the processing of information. We develop a model that allows us to evaluate the efficiency of different money market derivatives regarding these two objectives. We assume that due to its size, a large bank receives a more precise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295919
Outright bank failures without prior indication of financial instability are very rare. Supervisory authorities monitor banks constantly. Thus, they usually obtain early warning signals that precede ultimate failure and, in fact, banks can be regarded as troubled to varying degrees before...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295922
This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, the support vector machine, and a non-parametric technique for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We give an introduction to underlying statistical models and represent the results of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295937
This paper sets out to help explain why estimates of asset correlations based on equity prices tend to be considerably higher than estimates based on default rates. Resolving this empirical puzzle is highly important because, firstly, asset correlations are a key driver of credit risk and,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295941
Most credit portfolio models exclusively calculate the loss distribution for a portfolio of performing counterparts. Conservative default definitions cause considerable insecurity about the loss for a long time after the default. We present three approaches to account for defaulted counterparts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296668
Banks could achieve substantial improvements of their portfolio credit risk assessment by estimating rating transition matrices within a time-continuous Markov model, thereby using continuous-time rating transitions provided by internal rating systems instead of discrete-time rating information....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296695
Ziel des vorliegenden Diskussionspapiers ist es, einen Beitrag zur Verbesserung der Vergleichbarkeit der Schätzgüteergebnisse von Insolvenzprognosestudien zu leisten. Hierzu werden zunächst in der Literatur verwendete kategoriale, ordinale und kardinale Schätzgütemaße vorgestellt. Es wird...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296796
We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296810
In case of multiple source lending even solvent firms may be forced into bankruptcy due to uncoordinated credit withdrawals of their lenders. This paper analyzes whether a debtor firm can thwart such inefficient liquidations by offering creditors the option to delay their foreclosure decision...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010301793