The Empirical Probability (EP) technique is proposed as an effective support tool to assist agents operating in a global fusion of financial markets. This technique facilitates the identification and prediction of primary, secondary and tertiary trends in addition to the recognition of trend...

An experiment examined the effects of outcome feedback and three types of performance feedback - calibration feedback, resolution feedback, and covariance feedback - on various aspects of the performance of probability forecasters. Subjects made 55 forecasts in each of four essions,receiving...

This paper aims to explore the potential effects of trend type, noise and forecast horizon on experts' and novices' probabilistic forecasts. The subjects made forecasts over six time horizons from simulated monthly currency series based on a random walk, with zero, constant and stochastic drift,...

This paper reports the results of an experiment in stock-price forecasting that investigated the effects of feedback on various dimensions of probability forecasting accuracy. Three types of feedback were used: (1) simple outcome feedback, (2) outcome feedback presented in the task format, and...

The majority of studies of probability judgment have found that judgments tend to be overconfident and that the degree of overconfidence is greater the more difficult the task. Further, these effects have been resistant to attempts to 'debias' via feedback. We propose that under favourable...