This paper studies efficient market hypothesis in prediction markets and the results are illustrated for the in-play football betting market using the quoted odds for the English Premier League. Our analysis is based on the martingale property, where the last quoted probability should be the...

This paper presents a novel approach to model selection and model averaging based on economic theory. We study model prediction in the form of a distributional opinion about a random variable X. We show how to test this prediction against alternative views. Different model opinions can be traded...

This paper presents a novel approach to portfolio optimization based on perceived mean reversion in certain driftless markets, such as the foreign exchange spot market. This approach relies upon the likelihood ratio between the perceived and realized price distribution densities of the asset...