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This study examines whether analysts' decisions to issue cash flows forecasts depend endogenously on their decision to use these forecasts to set target prices. An endogenous switching regression model, with analyst report regimes of disclosure and non-disclosure of cash flow forecasts, shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104027
analysts' forecast revisions and prior stock price changes. We validate this measure by examining whether analysts with lower …. We find that the stock price impacts of forecast revisions issued by analysts with higher PPI are larger than those … of directors rely more on analysts' forecast errors in their CEO turnover decisions when firms are followed by analysts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857457
present a model in which forecast accuracy and timing are affected by information uncertainty stemming from (i) the presence … of forecast bias and (ii) investors' limited capability to adjust to this bias. We assume that the presence of a bias is … affects the trade-off between timeliness and forecast quality. We find that the optimal forecasting time varies non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928822
mechanism explains approximately 60% of the autocorrelation in analysts' forecast errors. The remainder stems from the cross …-sectional variation in mean forecast errors and in analysts' estimation errors of the persistence of earnings growth shocks. Consistent … reduces, but does not eliminate, the auto- correlation of forecast errors as firms age. Other potential explanations for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039156
We document that analysts cater to short-term investors by issuing optimistic target prices. Catering dominates among analysts at brokers without an investment banking arm as they face lower reputational cost. The market does not see through the analyst catering activity and their forecasts lead...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937400
This study proposes and validates “other information” in analysts' forecasts as a legitimate proxy for future cash flows, and examines its incremental role in explaining stock return volatility. We suggest that “other information” contains information about fundamentals beyond that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075116
with analyst forecast revisions. First, the market does not make a sufficient distinction between revisions that provide …. Finally, a substantial portion of the delayed price adjustment occurs around subsequent earnings-announcement and forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014093099
. We also find that analyst biases do not have an impact on forecast dispersion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833619
We use the copula approach to study the structure of dependence between sell-side analysts' consensus recommendations and subsequent security returns, with a focus on asymmetric tail dependence. We match monthly vintages of I/B/E/S recommendations for the period January to December 2011 with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013026393
Risk forecasting is crucial for informed investment decision-making. Moreover, the salience of investment risk increases during economically uncertain times. In this paper, we study how sell-side analysts form expectations of firm risk, under different macroeconomic conditions (low versus high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829616