Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

The unequal distribution of labor income in Germany is a hotly debated topic among policymakers and the general public alike. However, the relevant data for calculating the distribution is usually available with a delay of sometimes over two years. Accordingly, previous studies have only been...

Secular stagnation refers not to the literal stagnation, i.e., stopping of economic growth but rather to the slowing of U.S. potential real GDP growth to half or less of its historical pace. The retardation of potential real GDP growth matters both because of its direct impact on the standard of...

Over the last couple of decades, it has become a commonplace to claim that institutions matter for economic development. Yet, institutions are not exogenous but the result of human action. It is argued here that the values and norms held by substantial parts of society's members are an important...

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed...

We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed...

We motivate and detail the newly developed G-RDEM recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model as a tool for long-term counterfactual analysis and baseline generation from given GDP and population projections. It encompasses an AIDADS demand system with non-linear Engel curves, debt...

In this paper we present a computable general equilibrium model (G-RDEM), specifically designed for the generation of long run scenarios of economic development, featuring a non-homothetic demand system, endogenous saving rates, differentiated industrial productivity growth, interest payments on...

This paper presents an empirical exercise, aimed at investigating the implications on poverty and income distribution of a reference scenario (SSP2) of economic development. It does so by coupling a dynamic general equilibrium model of the global economy, specifically designed to capture...