For many benchmark predictor variables, short-horizon return predictability in the U.S. stock market is local in time as short periods with significant predictability (‘pockets') are interspersed with long periods with little or no evidence of return predictability. We document this result...

This paper examines the relationship between technological progress and the riskiness of labor income using employer-employee matched income data from the United States. Results suggest innovation is associated with a substantial increase in the labor income risk, especially for workers at the...

We examine the relation between technological progress and the riskiness of labor income. Motivated by a simple model of creative destruction, we draw a distinction between technological innovation advanced by the firm, or its competitors. Using administrative data from the United States, we...

We examine the relation between technological progress and the riskiness of labor income. Motivated by a simple model of creative destruction, we draw a distinction between technological innovation advanced by the firm, or its competitors. Using administrative data from the United States, we...

Using administrative data from the United States, we document novel stylized facts regarding technological innovation and the riskiness of labor income. Higher rates of industry innovation are associated with significant increases in labor earnings for top workers. Decomposing this result, we...

The strongest predictor of changes in the Fed Funds rate in the period 1982–2008 was the layoff rate. That fact is puzzling from the perspective of representative-agent models of the economy, which imply that the welfare gains of stabilizing employment fluctuations are small. This paper...

We define the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) for general recursive preferences and identify sharp comparative statics from a general dynamic portfolio choice problem. In many cases, when preferences are homothetic, if EIS is smaller (larger) than 1, an investor will decrease...