Showing 1 - 10 of 29,532
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987861
We examine whether real-time return forecasts are valuable to an investor looking to allocate their portfolio across a wide selection of countries. We expand the Sum-of-Parts (SoP) method for forecasting stock returns to an international setup by adding FX returns as an additional component. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403620
This paper documents a significantly negative cross-sectional relation between machine forecast disagreement (MFD) and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013405040
Factorization (NMF) and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) with hybrid artificial neutral networks to forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013233916
Using a novel equity lending dataset, this paper is the first to show that expected returns strongly and negatively predict future equity lending fees. In comparing two expected return measures, I find that a rational expected return has stronger predictive power of future short selling activity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013491786
While levels of actual and consensus forecast earnings per share (EPS) vary with scale (measured typically by share … price), magnitudes of the difference do not vary with scale. That is, forecast errors within a certain range (e.g., plus … with scale for forecast dispersion, representing magnitudes of the difference between individual forecasts and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150510
We consider a canonical asset pricing model, where agents with quadratic preferences are allowed to retrade a limited set of securities over multiple periods, after which these securities expire, and agents consume their liquidation values. A key assumption in this model is that agents have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833019
Prior research shows that disagreement leads to speculative trading and a speculative premium in stock prices. We examine how managers respond to this speculative premium. Using exogenous variation in speculative trading due to the reconstitution of the Russell 1000/2000 indices, we find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838034
As some recent studies have shown empirically, future gold price fluctuations are especially difficult to forecast … prediction techniques leads to better forecasts of gold excess returns. The forecast power of fundamental predictor variables is … not only highly regime-dependent, but also dependent on the selected economic evaluation criterion. Future gold forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012951544
This paper investigates the relationships among cross-sectional stock returns and analysts' forecast revisions …, forecast dispersion and momentum. Market rewards the strategy in pursuit of revision up and away from revision down by 22 …-2015 periods. Revision up and revision down betas account for most of the momentum strategy and over half of forecast dispersion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955959