Do futures markets have a stabilizing or destabilizing effect on commodity prices? Empirical evidence is inconclusive. We try to resolve this question by means of a learning-to-forecast experiment in which a futures market and a spot market are coupled. The spot market exhibits negative feedback...

We derive new bounds on the rational variation in asset prices over time. The resulting test requires no proxy for fundamental value, and it allows significantly more flexibility in preferences and discount rates than in standard volatility tests. We gain traction by focusing specifically on...

We model visibility bias in the social transmission of consumption behavior. When consumption is more salient than non-consumption, people perceive that others are consuming heavily, and infer that future prospects are favorable. This increases aggregate consumption in a positive feedback loop....

We successfully show that it is possible to optimize both for risk and for asset allocation without compromising the optimization of individual goals by introducing the novel concept of a compensation portfolio. Therefore, we solve for the global vs. local optimization paradox by bridging Modern...

There is an apparent rift between the way banks calculate and the way humans think.On the one hand, exponential discounting has played a centuries-long, lead role in financial analysis. On the other hand, experiments by behavioral economists demonstrate that hyperbolic discounting is better than...

The overall market for derivative securities is often estimated as more than ten times the World's GDP and many decry the complexity of derivatives as a main contributor to the subprime financial crisis. In this paper, we investigate whether and why complexity is used as a proxy for risk when...

When sellers set the price for ex-ante unobservable and ex-post unenforceable quality, price signals credence quality. Hedge funds resemble incomplete long-term contracts for credence goods under buyer-determined auctions. I show that hedge funds' ability to solicit investments at higher...

The structure of uncertainty underlying certain decision problems may be so complex as to elude decision-makers' full understanding, curtailing their willingness to pay for payoff-relevant information — a puzzle manifesting itself in, for instance, low stock-market participation rates. I...

Experimental evidence shows that the rational expectations hypothesis fails to characterize the path to equilibrium after an exogenous shock when actions are strategic complements. Under identical shocks, however, repetition allows adaptive learning, so that inertia in adjustment should fade...

A prominent approach to modelling ambiguity about stock return distribution is to assume that investors have multiple priors about the distribution and these priors are distributed according to a certain second-order distribution. Realistically, investors may also have multiple priors about the...