With financial modelling requiring a better understanding of model risk, it is helpful to be able to vary assumptions about underlying probability distributions in an efficient manner, preferably without the noise induced by resampling distributions managed by Monte Carlo methods. This article...

In this article we suggest a new method for solutions of stochastic integrals where the dynamics of the variables in integrand are given by some stochastic differential equation. We also propose numerical simulation of stochastic differential equations which is based on iterated integrals method...

Unlike tranches of synthetic CDOs, that depend only on the defaults of the underlying securities, tranches of cashflow CDOs also depend on the interest cash flows from the coupons of the securities. Whilst fast, accurate, (semi-)analytic methods exist for pricing synthetic CDO tranches (Hull and...

Sampled distributions are used to price, hedge and produce scenarios for derivative products which is essential for risk management. This approach accumulates many types of discretisation errors. These can be linked to data quality input, to calibration algorithms, discretisation in time,...

One-way coupling often occurs in multi-dimensional stochastic models in finance. In this paper, we develop a highly efficient Monte Carlo (MC) method for pricing European options under a N-dimensional one-way coupled model, where N is arbitrary. The method is based on a combination of (i) the...

We construct a binomial model for a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) rider to a variable annuity (VA) under optimal policyholder behaviour. The binomial model results in explicitly formulated perfect hedging strategies funded using only periodic fee income. We consider the separate...

The recent evolution of prudential regulation establishes a new requirement for banks and supervisors to perform reverse stress test exercises in their risk assessment processes, aimed at detecting default or near-default scenarios. We propose a reverse stress test methodology based on a...

In this study I apply forward sensitivity analysis to the dynamical system of nonlinear asset flow differential equations (AFDE). I find that all parameters in AFDE are needed and can be estimated from market prices and net asset values data. Moreover, the market price is the most fluctuating...

Recent periods of market turbulence and stress have created considerable interest in credible alternatives to traditional asset allocation methodologies. It would be preferred if portfolios can be decomposed into components that can be directly connected to independent risks and individually...