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This paper develops a methodology to test whether recent developments on world oil markets are in line with the hypothesis of efficient markets. We treat the joint hypothesis problem as stated by Fama (1970), Fama (1991), that market efficiency can only be assessed in conjunction with a price...
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, OECD and U.S. oil and petroleum inventories and consumption, and historical and implied volatility. When we model the … are modelled separately, we find that shocks to OECD petroleum consumption directly widen negative spreads. Further …
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We study the impact of analyst forecasts on prices to determine whether investors learn about analyst accuracy. The straight-forward relationship between supply and price, the economic importance of the market, the predictable timing of forecast error realizations, and the high frequency of the...
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