A Bayesian method to detect structural changes in multivariate dynamic linear model is introduced and it is applied to predicting and dating the turns in business cycle. As many researchers use for business cycle analysis, the composite leading index (CLI) and the composite coincident index...

In this study, we explore the issue of how to enhance forecast of the box office sales, an all-time question for managers in the motion picture industry. The conceptual core of our approach is the expected sales. The expected sales of agents in the movie market (i.e. screen managers at supply...