The conduct of monetary policy is often characterised by either “hawks versus doves” or “rules versus discretion”. We use a metric to evaluate monetary policy rules by calculating quadratic loss ratios, the (inflation plus unemployment) loss in high deviations periods divided by the loss...

Debates about the conduct of monetary policy have evolved over time from “rules versus discretion” to “policy rules versus constrained discretion.” We propose a metric to evaluate monetary policy rules that are consistent with constrained discretion by calculating quadratic loss ratios,...

We use tests for structural change to identify periods of low, positive, and negative Taylor rule deviations, the difference between the federal funds rate and the rate prescribed by the original Taylor rule. The tests define four monetary policy eras: a negative deviations era during the Great...

We first show that the recent success of modern macroeconomic models in forecasting nominal exchange rates, evaluated using the Clark and West (2006) inference procedure, is in part due to the presence of the constant term (drift) in addition to the economic fundamentals. We then model the...

Early research on the Taylor rule typically divided the data exogenously into pre-Volcker and Volcker-Greenspan subsamples. We contribute to the recent trend of endogenizing changes in monetary policy by estimating a real-time forward-looking Taylor rule with endogenous Markov switching...

This paper develops a theoretical model that identifies the relationship between the volatility of private sector wages and growth. The model suggests two distinct channels in which wage volatility affects growth: a positive direct way and a negative indirect way. The direct effect stems from...