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Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models … unobserved component models and offers frequentist as well as Bayesian estimation techniques. Additional functionalities include … preparation, model specification, and estimation processes using RGAP. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256541
This paper builds an unobserved components model that combines a multivariate filter approach with a Cobb-Douglas production function. This combination allows potential output estimates to incorporate more economic structure than the traditional production function approach, while retaining the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243813
The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343145
Over the last two decades the intensity of credit standards' tightening during economic contractions has exceeded their easing during expansions among euro area banks. This mechanism is fed by the boom-bust cycle of credit that, as much research has shown, is linked to financial instability with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865060
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013261146
die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen sie auch erhebliche …The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated data for the eurozone … methods commonly used have only limited information content for inflation forecasting in the euro-zone. Conclusions for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473858
We incorporate adaptive learning-based inflation expectations in an Unobserved Components model in order to study the link between inflation and the output gap. The forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve serves as the backbone for modeling inflation dynamics. We find that learning based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234838
We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014427292
We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813503
Eine aktive Stabilisierung realwirtschaftlicher Fluktuationen spielt eine zentrale Rolle für die Geldpolitik, wenn …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009772964