The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost … growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation …. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that …

, introducing slack into models estimated using headline PCE inflation data or conventional core inflation data causes forecast …Using state-space modeling, we extract information from surveys of long-term inflation expectations and multiple … quarterly inflation series to undertake a real-time decomposition of quarterly headline PCE and GDP-deflator inflation rates …

Inflation expectations constitute important components of macroeconomic models and monetary policy rules. We … investigate the relative performance of consumer, professional, market-based, and model-based inflation forecasts. Consistent with … the previous literature, professional forecasts most accurately predict one-year-ahead year-over-year inflation. Both …

Forecasting inflation is an important and challenging task. In this paper we assume that the core inflation components … evolve as a multivariate local level process. This model, which is theoretically attractive for modelling inflation dynamics … estimates, as we show in a Monte Carlo exercise. In an application to euro-area inflation we find that our forecasts compare …

desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models to forecast inflation in Argentina and conducts a comparison of …In general, central banks are concerned with keeping the inflation rate stable while also sustaining output close to an … efficient level. Under "inflation targeting", forecasts of the evolution of the general price level are an essential input for …

-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We … find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation …

genaue Prognose enthalten. Aber die Hinzunahme weiterer Indikatoren führt zu einer schlechteren Prognoseleistung. Dies gilt …

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the … average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation … uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model …

. Here we show that this may be problematic. In a panel of US inflation forecast data that allows us to compare the two, the …A common practice in studies using inflation forecasts is to approximate fixed-horizon forecasts with fixed-event ones … inflation), and statistically significant differences in both the variances and persistence of the approximate inflation …

This article measures the degree of potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area vis-à-vis the … inflation objective of the European Central Bank (ECB). A no-arbitrage term structure model that allows for a time-varying long …-term mean of inflation expectations, π୲ ∗, is applied to inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates, while taking into account survey …