Showing 1 - 10 of 31,608
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
frequency volatilities and correlations ; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Spline-GARCH ; Idiosyncratic volatility ; Long … that characterize long-term correlation patterns. We associate such term behavior with low frequency economic variables … improves the empirical fit of equity correlations in the US and correlation forecasts at long horizons. -- Factor models ; Low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063
measuring the contemporaneous correlation between the return shock and the volatility shock. We show that the contemporaneous … correlation can be quantified within an EGARCH model, where the composite disturbance to the return follows a normal log … the contemporaneous correlation being negative and the ARCH-M effect being positive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133961
while adjusting for the volatility risk premium. Relative model performance does not change during the global financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915984
prices, which translates into skew and smile patterns for implied volatility curves even under constant volatilities … the market. collateral requirements, funding costs, volatility smile, option pricing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009375107
investors' learning behavior into an equilibrium stochastic volatility model. In the model, we introduce noise signals as a …-varying volatility for stock returns, even when volatility of economic fundamental is constant. As a source of risk, for investors with … volatility and jump …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024745
Many asset pricing theories treat the cross-section of returns volatility and correlations as two intimately related … quantities driven by common factors, which hinders achieving a neat definition of a correlation premium. We formulate a model … returns: an average correlation premium. This premium is both statistically and economically significant, and considerably …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421289
This paper implements a novel model-free methodology to measure skewness risk premia in individual stocks. The methodology takes the form of a trading strategy, a skewness swap. The return on the strategy shows a significant positive skewness risk premium in individual stocks. The risk premium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899675
We study how the excess market return depends on the time of the day using E-mini S&P 500 futures that are actively traded for almost 24 hours. Strikingly, four hours around European open account for the entire average market return. This period's returns are consistently positive in every year,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834630
This paper analyzes the determinants of the simultaneous cross-sectional variation of return and volatility risk premia … positive and statistically different from zero. Moreover, the risk premium of the market volatility risk premium beta is … volatility and return segments of the market. On average, common factors in both segments explain 90% of the variability of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935590